Do you have data on $150-$250 psf for new ground up elevator/sprinkler apartment buildings? My experience in RI is that hard costs are at least 280/sf, and I've heard estimates of
350+/sf. Total development cost is 50% more on top of that. I agree that ADUs are expensive to build, but the comparison narrows a little, in my experience as a developer.
"NIMBYism is a political identity, not a misunderstanding, and she’s not going to grow out of it."
Which you immediately contradict here.
"The ADU enriches her property and houses Mom, or a tenant she screens personally, who pays $2,500 a month. Same unit of housing. Completely different calculus, because self-interest overrode principle."
The obvious difference is that the person is personally screening who enters her neighborhood. The reason they don't want the apartment built is because it brings in the wrong sort of people and their housing values go down. An ADU housing a personally screened by them to make sure that doesn't happen.
NIMBYism isn't a "political identity". It's rational homeowners recognizing that the value of real estate is related to the people who live near you.
The Fair Housing Act was the worst piece of legislation in history because it prevented discrimination at scale and hence "don't let poor people apartments get built" because the only tool people had.
So long as people treat NIMBYs as some kind of irrational orcs rather then rational economic actors that have preferences that need to be bargained with your not going to make progress.
Personally, i think its way worse as a young man, to be trapped in the suburbs. No job, no car, not even a bus. The exurbs suck for a kid. But im biased, having spent my coming-of-age years in such underinvested future ghettos.
This was started as a utopian integrated community for rich DC workers.
Wilde Lake High School used to be majority white and well off. Now it's 27% white and 42% low income. That's because they build rental apartments and installed bus routes.
The district just went through a huge redistricting battle as everyone attempt to make sure the blacks didn't end up in their district.
And they are just in the middle of the transition. Owings Mills high school used to be a middle class white suburban high school. Now it's 5% white and 65% low income. They built apartments and extended the light rail.
Dude I could go school by school in every US city and show you how it takes just a generation to flip demographics.
Nearly every city has the same issues. I’m from Ny, you want to hear ny.
Your the one saying all nimbys are ideological psychopaths and you beehive all local zoning should be replaced by one size fits all state/national rules.
This number felt unrealistic, and I don't think it's right: "By 2023, Los Angeles County alone permitted more than 45,000." I see it links back to a Brookings article ("In 2023, Los Angeles County alone permitted more than 45,000"), which then links back to an LA TImes article that doesn't seem to include the explicit number.
Really well done. An excellent job of laying out what some of us have tried to articulate with the scalability of ADUs. I’d probably say it as simply, when you empower millions of decision makers instead of a small number of professionals, that’s how you get scale and speed.
Couple quick points:
I take small issue just with the line that the home ownership system is accidental, not designed. That’s not true - it’s 100% the American system of distributed private ownership with associated rights. When we value and lean into that, we get quicker, better solutions
Second, as next reforms are considered, the lesson here should be about empowering the same sort of change with middle scale housing. How do smaller investors and owners incentivized by process to build 4, 6, 12 units apartment buildings? As in fact, we did historically before zoning and before the creation of discretionary approvals for building.
Do you have data on $150-$250 psf for new ground up elevator/sprinkler apartment buildings? My experience in RI is that hard costs are at least 280/sf, and I've heard estimates of
350+/sf. Total development cost is 50% more on top of that. I agree that ADUs are expensive to build, but the comparison narrows a little, in my experience as a developer.
I wanted to like this until I got here.
"NIMBYism is a political identity, not a misunderstanding, and she’s not going to grow out of it."
Which you immediately contradict here.
"The ADU enriches her property and houses Mom, or a tenant she screens personally, who pays $2,500 a month. Same unit of housing. Completely different calculus, because self-interest overrode principle."
The obvious difference is that the person is personally screening who enters her neighborhood. The reason they don't want the apartment built is because it brings in the wrong sort of people and their housing values go down. An ADU housing a personally screened by them to make sure that doesn't happen.
NIMBYism isn't a "political identity". It's rational homeowners recognizing that the value of real estate is related to the people who live near you.
The Fair Housing Act was the worst piece of legislation in history because it prevented discrimination at scale and hence "don't let poor people apartments get built" because the only tool people had.
So long as people treat NIMBYs as some kind of irrational orcs rather then rational economic actors that have preferences that need to be bargained with your not going to make progress.
Personally, i think its way worse as a young man, to be trapped in the suburbs. No job, no car, not even a bus. The exurbs suck for a kid. But im biased, having spent my coming-of-age years in such underinvested future ghettos.
Ive lived in a lot of expensive areas. Apartments attract dregs. Families don’t move into apartments. Section 8 gets used in apartments.
Lets look at Columbia, MD.
This was started as a utopian integrated community for rich DC workers.
Wilde Lake High School used to be majority white and well off. Now it's 27% white and 42% low income. That's because they build rental apartments and installed bus routes.
The district just went through a huge redistricting battle as everyone attempt to make sure the blacks didn't end up in their district.
And they are just in the middle of the transition. Owings Mills high school used to be a middle class white suburban high school. Now it's 5% white and 65% low income. They built apartments and extended the light rail.
Dude I could go school by school in every US city and show you how it takes just a generation to flip demographics.
So thats why Cedar Hill and Duncanville TX dont have buses! Its associated with crime.
Boy, i hope your car never gets stolen. Mine did, and I relied on the bus to get to work.
This is to show, transport is a public utility that most people will need at some point
Alright, what cities would you like to discuss?
Nearly every city has the same issues. I’m from Ny, you want to hear ny.
Your the one saying all nimbys are ideological psychopaths and you beehive all local zoning should be replaced by one size fits all state/national rules.
This number felt unrealistic, and I don't think it's right: "By 2023, Los Angeles County alone permitted more than 45,000." I see it links back to a Brookings article ("In 2023, Los Angeles County alone permitted more than 45,000"), which then links back to an LA TImes article that doesn't seem to include the explicit number.
Take a look at the California HCD data dashboard (https://www.hcd.ca.gov/housing-open-data-tools/apr-dashboard) and it appears that LA county permitted 12,211 ADUs in 2023. Still a significant number, but not quite the scale indicated.
Really well done. An excellent job of laying out what some of us have tried to articulate with the scalability of ADUs. I’d probably say it as simply, when you empower millions of decision makers instead of a small number of professionals, that’s how you get scale and speed.
Couple quick points:
I take small issue just with the line that the home ownership system is accidental, not designed. That’s not true - it’s 100% the American system of distributed private ownership with associated rights. When we value and lean into that, we get quicker, better solutions
Second, as next reforms are considered, the lesson here should be about empowering the same sort of change with middle scale housing. How do smaller investors and owners incentivized by process to build 4, 6, 12 units apartment buildings? As in fact, we did historically before zoning and before the creation of discretionary approvals for building.