Fantastic post, I love how clearly you laid it out, and the stadium and data center counterexamples.
One thing that surprised me was your ending, though - no cuts, no KPI's, only more expansion. But obviously, nobody wants to expand government when it's perceived that it can't even fix potholes and is largely there for the benefit of large companies rather than local people.
If most government is local, and if local governments (back in the days we still had state capacity) created all the good stuff, shouldn't the solution be to cut the massive ~9M strong federal level, which probably takes considerably more than the 1/3 that headcount represents in tax money, and redirect that money locally (in a population balanced way like Germany), so people can use it at the local levels that things actually get done?
Sorry about the late reply appreciate the pushback - it highlights something I didn't make clear enough.
A numbers clarification: The federal government employs 2 million civilians, not 9 million. That 9.1 million figure includes contractors and grant employees. State and local governments employ 19.9 million directly - about ten times the federal civilian workforce. There's actually not much federal capacity to cut and redistribute without a long and careful system refactoring, and every time we tried that, we get less federal workers, the work builds up and we end up hiring more federal contractors whose bosses get more federal cash instead of workers, cities, or states. I mean it's one of the reasons why Bill Clinton National Performance Review was a failure in the long run was all those fired workers were replaced with contractors.
Not to mention, cutting federal capacity without a long and careful reform process removes coordination levers - fewer federal employees to process transit grants, administer Medicaid, or evaluate infrastructure projects. When states need to implement federal programs, federal capacity does help determines how smoothly it works. Hollowing out federal agencies doesn't give states more capacity. It removes tools that could coordinate across levels.
If we want to become more like Germany, or we want to distubute more to the states, instead of private contractors we need to think things though.
I have a very different view. I don't want any state capacity.
I used to live in the DC area. State capacity was a nightmare that made my life worse. I was fine with the mass layoffs, I know these people and their jobs ranged from "fake e-mail" to "finds ways to get in other peoples way and cause problems."
I've since moved to Florida. I like it hear and don't want the feds interfering.
Education policy? The state gives me a voucher and I choose where to send my kid.
Building houses? We build plenty of houses down here in Florida. Most are built in big HOA suburban communities that YIMBYs hate. My HOA provides all the services a local government normally would for a fraction of the price and way better quality.
Crime, even the cities in Florida do a pretty good job. I can go through downtown Tampa without seeing junkies, degenerates, and gangs everywhere. Couldn't do that up north.
I don't want the feds interfering with what I got and I don't want cities interfering with my suburbs.
To me State Capacity is the State forcing a two year old to wear a mask all day while he cries his eyes out. Just leave me and my family alone.
BTW, the Fair Housing Act caused most of the zoning problems we have. Nobody wants violent underclass (mostly black and brown) fucking up their neighborhood or school. People recreated segregation using zoning and price because the FHA banned it directly. And no, trying to shove underclass dysfunction down peoples throats isn't going to work. You people tried and failed with school busing and all the rest.
Fantastic post, I love how clearly you laid it out, and the stadium and data center counterexamples.
One thing that surprised me was your ending, though - no cuts, no KPI's, only more expansion. But obviously, nobody wants to expand government when it's perceived that it can't even fix potholes and is largely there for the benefit of large companies rather than local people.
If most government is local, and if local governments (back in the days we still had state capacity) created all the good stuff, shouldn't the solution be to cut the massive ~9M strong federal level, which probably takes considerably more than the 1/3 that headcount represents in tax money, and redirect that money locally (in a population balanced way like Germany), so people can use it at the local levels that things actually get done?
Sorry about the late reply appreciate the pushback - it highlights something I didn't make clear enough.
A numbers clarification: The federal government employs 2 million civilians, not 9 million. That 9.1 million figure includes contractors and grant employees. State and local governments employ 19.9 million directly - about ten times the federal civilian workforce. There's actually not much federal capacity to cut and redistribute without a long and careful system refactoring, and every time we tried that, we get less federal workers, the work builds up and we end up hiring more federal contractors whose bosses get more federal cash instead of workers, cities, or states. I mean it's one of the reasons why Bill Clinton National Performance Review was a failure in the long run was all those fired workers were replaced with contractors.
Not to mention, cutting federal capacity without a long and careful reform process removes coordination levers - fewer federal employees to process transit grants, administer Medicaid, or evaluate infrastructure projects. When states need to implement federal programs, federal capacity does help determines how smoothly it works. Hollowing out federal agencies doesn't give states more capacity. It removes tools that could coordinate across levels.
If we want to become more like Germany, or we want to distubute more to the states, instead of private contractors we need to think things though.
I have a very different view. I don't want any state capacity.
I used to live in the DC area. State capacity was a nightmare that made my life worse. I was fine with the mass layoffs, I know these people and their jobs ranged from "fake e-mail" to "finds ways to get in other peoples way and cause problems."
I've since moved to Florida. I like it hear and don't want the feds interfering.
Education policy? The state gives me a voucher and I choose where to send my kid.
Building houses? We build plenty of houses down here in Florida. Most are built in big HOA suburban communities that YIMBYs hate. My HOA provides all the services a local government normally would for a fraction of the price and way better quality.
Crime, even the cities in Florida do a pretty good job. I can go through downtown Tampa without seeing junkies, degenerates, and gangs everywhere. Couldn't do that up north.
I don't want the feds interfering with what I got and I don't want cities interfering with my suburbs.
To me State Capacity is the State forcing a two year old to wear a mask all day while he cries his eyes out. Just leave me and my family alone.
BTW, the Fair Housing Act caused most of the zoning problems we have. Nobody wants violent underclass (mostly black and brown) fucking up their neighborhood or school. People recreated segregation using zoning and price because the FHA banned it directly. And no, trying to shove underclass dysfunction down peoples throats isn't going to work. You people tried and failed with school busing and all the rest.