Two 'Failed' Cities (Detroit & Baltimore) Built Local State Capacity To Bring Crime to New Lows

From The Wire to 50-Year Lows: One Used An Economics Focus, One Used Public Health Focus, Both Proved the Experts Wrong

Ask people about Detroit and Baltimore, and 9 out of 10 would say those cities are dying. Are they right? No!

Recent headlines, especially from the Washington Post about how the progressive mayor Brandon Scott cut crime to a 50 year low in infamous city of Baltimore. Before that the heterodox centrist Mike Duggan was also achieving dramatic cuts in crime another “failed” city, Detroit.

That said, people used to be right about how bad things were (70,000 abandoned buildings in 2012 Detroit, over 300 annual homicides in Baltimore during 2015). Baltimore's governance failure alone inspired The Wire, the HBO series that defined urban dysfunction for a generation. Numbers can't capture the desperation citizens felt watching traditional government fail, year after year, as the “Game” kept grinding forward, indifferent to their suffering.

What happened next surprised everyone. New mayors, refusing to become the next Tommy Carcetti (all reform rhetoric, no real change) or Nerese Campbell (Campbell was based on real-life mayor Sheila Dixon, who Dixon denied being in a Washington Post chat, but was later convicted of corruption in 2009. She epitomized the very failures Scott would later overcome), forced their respective cities to reimagine what government could be. They actually broke the system of failure. These mayors invented organizational forms that challenge our basic assumptions about local public sector capacity, even in "failed cities."

When Mike Duggan became mayor of a Detroit emerging from bankruptcy and when Brandon Scott took the helm of a Baltimore recording its deadliest years, traditional approaches, the political "Game", had already failed citizens and government employees time and time again. They needed new organizational forms, not just new programs, if they wanted to end the damn cycle and make the “Game” work for citizens for once in its existence.

These turnarounds prove that cities, even in dire straits, can transform themselves through leadership and organizational improvements. These seemingly different approaches share core principles: improving service quality, tackling infrastructure , and building local state capacity. Duggan and Scott’s methods may differ, but the commitment to breaking old patterns remains constant, and I would argue that the approaches aren't incompatible.

Detroit's Breakthrough: When Community Groups Become Business Partners

Detroit’s turnaround under Mayor Mike Duggan is a story of pragmatic, competent, large-scale intervention. Duggan's strategy is rooted in the belief that to heal a city long plagued by decay and violence, one must first rebuild its economic foundations.

Blight

The transformation began with brutal honesty about reality. City government alone could never address the scale of breakdown they faced. Those 70,000 blighted structures weren't just eyesores, Abandoned or not, these buildings still have an impact on Detroit’s infrastructure, getting rid of them makes handling Detroit’s infrastructure easier to deal with. Not to mention, Wayne State University research showed clear correlations between abandoned buildings and violent crime. But instead of seeing this as purely a city service delivery problem, leadership spotted an opportunity to mobilize community capacity.

Proposal N, the $250 million bond program for blight removal that voters approved in March 2020. It funded demolition of 19,000 structures and renovation of 8,000 others. It also focus on keeping as much of the money in Detroit as 54% of city-funded demolitions went to Detroit-based contractors, compared to 37% under the previous federal program.

Removing blight didn’t just lower crime, The removal of blight is directly linked to a stunning increase in housing wealth, which grew by $4.7 billion (a 112% increase) between 2014 and 2023. Black homeowners accounted for 75% of the total gain, and the neighborhoods that had the lowest property values and highest poverty rates in 2014 saw the largest percentage increases in home values.

This demonstrates a positive feedback loop: the bond-funded, city-wide blight removal campaign created a safer and more stable physical environment, which in turn restored confidence, attracted investment, and generated substantial, equitably distributed wealth for the city's long-term residents.

Police Investments

Duggan didn’t just focus on indirect measures, he also gets law enforcement more investment. Duggan takes advantage of the American Rescue Plan (ARP) to direct more than $100 million into the Detroit Police Department (DPD). These funds have been used for critical upgrades, including officer retention bonuses, the purchase of 50 new police cruisers to improve response times, and the acquisition and upgrading of police helicopters equipped with thermal imaging cameras to track suspects and minimize the need for dangerous high-speed pursuits.

A centerpiece of this technological push is the city's Real-Time Crime Center, a facility that uses data-driven analytics to monitor crime in real-time and optimize police deployment. This is supplemented by Project Green Light, a well-established public-private partnership where businesses install high-definition cameras that feed directly to police monitors, creating a visible deterrent in high-crime areas. The DPD has also demonstrated a willingness to use targeted, traditional enforcement tactics to address specific crime trends. In response to a spike in youth-involved violence, the administration announced a "major crackdown" involving the strict enforcement of juvenile curfew laws, with significantly increased fines for parents (from $75 to $250 for a first offense) and the deployment of special vans to transport young offenders.

ShotStoppers

This philosophy reached its peak in the ShotStoppers program, Detroit's Community Violence Intervention (CVI) initiative started with funds from the American Rescue Package. Instead of dictating how community organizations should reduce violence, the city created a framework giving groups both autonomy and accountability. Each organization received geographic responsibility for a specific high-crime zone and base funding of $175,000 per quarter. There is a performance bonus where organizations could double their funding by achieving violence reductions at least 10 percentage points better than the citywide average.

This market-based, competitive system treats CVI providers as contractors hired to achieve a specific, quantifiable outcome. It fosters a highly accountable, data-driven environment that has yielded dramatic results. In the final quarter of the program's first year, all six CVI zones recorded reductions in shootings and homicides ranging from 37% to an astonishing 83%, far outpacing the citywide average. Groups like FORCE Detroit and New Era Community Connection have consistently posted quarterly reductions of over 50%. The program's efficacy is being rigorously evaluated by the University of Michigan's Poverty Solutions center to ensure independent analysis and validation of its success.

But Duggan understood that even the best violence intervention programs would fail without addressing the economic desperation that drives crime. Alongside ShotStoppers, Detroit launching programs to knock down the city’s unemployment rate. The city's unemployment rate, which stood at nearly 20% in 2013, fell to a city record low of 8% by 2023, and further down to 7.5% in 2024. This was facilitated by the creation of dedicated workforce development programs. An example is "Grow Detroit's Young Talent" initiative has provided summer employment for thousands of youth.

Another program is Project Clean Slate, a city-run program that provides free legal assistance to help residents expunge criminal records. Since its creation in 2016, the program has successfully expunged over 10,000 convictions with a remarkable 99.7% success rate for applications filed, removing a significant, long-standing barrier to employment for thousands of Detroiters.

Baltimore's Revolution: Violence Prevention Gets Equal Billing

Baltimore took a different organizational approach. While Detroit decentralized authority to community partners, Baltimore created a centralized institution giving violence prevention equal standing with law enforcement.

MONSE: A New City Agency

Mayor Scott established the Mayor's Office of Neighborhood Safety and Engagement (MONSE) as a permanent city agency dedicated to violence prevention through public health methods. Unlike previous cities that housed violence prevention within police or health departments, Baltimore made it an independent government function.

The city's Comprehensive Violence Prevention Plan (CVPP), launched in 2021, set a goal of 15% annual reduction in shootings. The plan emerged from community engagement sessions and established three pillars: public health approaches to violence, inter-agency coordination, and evaluation/accountability.

MONSE functions as a backbone organization - it doesn't deliver direct services but coordinates partners, creates shared measurement systems, and facilitates communication across agencies.

The CVI Ecosystem

Using $10 million in American Rescue Plan funds, Baltimore built a "CVI Ecosystem" comprising 44 partner agencies:

• Safe Streets for street-level conflict mediation (Johns Hopkins research shows 23% reduction in non-fatal shootings at program sites)

• Hospital-based violence intervention programs (HVIPs) that engage shooting victims in emergency rooms

• Wraparound services through partners like Roca and Youth Advocate Programs

• Group Violence Reduction Strategy offering services or enforcement

• Data portal developed with Everytown for Gun Safety integrating gun traces, ballistics, and alert data

When a shooting occurs, the ecosystem coordinates response: hospital interrupters engage victims, Safe Streets mediators work the neighborhood, social services support families, and youth workers prevent retaliation. MONSE protocols guide these activities.

Youth Programs

Baltimore's youth strategy emphasizes programming over enforcement. The FY2026 budget allocates $634.4 million for youth programs. Summer initiatives include:

• Extended recreation center hours (until 11 PM on weekends)

• 42 summer camp sites

• 12,000 program seats

• Partnership with B-360 connecting dirt bike culture to STEM education

• School-based violence intervention pilots

Results show 66% decrease in youth shooting victimizations, 31% drop in youth aggravated assaults, and 74% reduction in juvenile homicide and shooting victims in 2024.

Results and Challenges

Baltimore's homicides fell below 300 in 2023 for the first time in nearly a decade, followed by 20% and 23% drops in successive years. By mid-2025, the city was on pace for its lowest homicide count in 50 years.

Challenges remain:

• Critics view the Group Violence Reduction Strategy as repackaged "focused deterrence" that previously failed

• Safe Streets effectiveness varies by site

• The ecosystem depends on temporary ARPA funding and Scott has been blunt about the vulnerability: without sustained federal support, the ecosystem could collapse

• Coordinating 44 partners requires complex management

The model elevated violence prevention workers' status within city government. MONSE created professional standards, training programs, and career pathways for the field. This institutionalization of violence prevention as a core government function represents Baltimore's primary organizational innovation.

Two Cities, One Lesson: Finding Your Own Path

Detroit and Baltimore achieved historic crime reductions using different frameworks for the same basic approach: federal funding, infrastructure improvements, and organizational innovation.

Detroit's Economic Focus :

• $250 million blight removal creating jobs and $4.7 billion in housing wealth

• Performance-based contracts paying community organizations for results

• Unemployment dropped from 20% to 7.5%

• 203 homicides in 2024, lowest since 1965

Baltimore's Public Health Focus:

• MONSE coordinating 44 partners as "treatment" system

• $634.4 million youth investment as prevention

• 74% drop in youth shooting victims

• On pace for lowest homicides in 50 years

Both used American Rescue Plan funds. Both rebuilt infrastructure (Detroit physical, Baltimore organizational). The difference was framing: economics versus public health.

Context Determined Approach

Detroit post-bankruptcy had weak city government but strong community organizations. Market-based contracts fit this reality. Baltimore had functioning government but fragmented services. Coordination infrastructure addressed this gap.

Cities examining these models must inventory their own capacities and gaps. What exists? What's missing? What works? What doesn't? This assessment reveals which elements might transfer.

Learning from Both

Both cities share their experiences openly. Detroit explains how community organizations became data-driven contractors. Baltimore details how hospitals, police, and community groups learned to coordinate. These conversations reveal implementation details reports miss.

Synthesis Through Assessment

Economic opportunity and public health aren't opposing strategies, they're different lenses for the same problems and it’s useful to think in both contexts. Most cities need elements of both. Some need physical infrastructure improvement before social coordination can work. Others need coordination before economic incentives make sense.

The federal funding both cities used is temporary. The organizational forms they created (performance partnerships, coordinated ecosystems) can be permanent. Each city must determine which innovations fit their context.

Taking inventory of current operations while learning from both cities reveals the path forward. The goal isn't copying Detroit or Baltimore but understanding what worked and why, then building what fits your reality.