Northern Europe : The Younger You Are, The Unhappier You Are! Even in the UK? Especially the UK!
The U-shaped pattern of life satisfaction by age in Western Europe — where happiness dips in midlife before rising again — has vanished, replaced by opposing regional patterns.
Economists David Blanchflower (Dartmouth) and Alex Bryson (UCL) document the end of one of psychology's most consistent findings. Blanchflower spent decades establishing the U-shape's universality across 145 countries — it was considered a "stylized fact" as reliable as any in social science. After analyzing 2.4 million responses across 51 years, they now document its complete dissolution. Northern European youth are the least satisfied age group while southern European youth are the happiest.
In 13 northern European countries, life satisfaction now rises with age. In 6 southern European countries, it declines. Austria and France show mixed evidence. The split emerged around 2020 and appears driven by youth employment opportunities — not social media exposure.
By the Numbers
Core findings:
2,421,597 observations analyzed (1973-2024)
21 Western European countries studied
600+ papers documented the U-shape before 2020
2020: Year the U-shape disappeared
13 northern countries where satisfaction rises with age
6 southern countries where satisfaction declines with age
Youth unemployment collapse (2015-2024):
Greece: 50.4% → 22.3%
Spain: 48.3% → 26.5%
Italy: 40.2% → 20.3%
Cyprus: 37.0% → 13.0%
Sweden: 19.6% → 24.0% (increased)
UK-specific data:
178,946 total UK observations
3.38 → 3.18: UK youth satisfaction decline (2015-2023)
6.98 → 6.07: UK teen satisfaction drop (PISA 2015-2022)
21.3%: UK youth unemployment peak (2011-2012)
11.1%: UK youth unemployment (2019)
Life satisfaction changes for youth (2015-2024):
Greece: +0.34
Italy: +0.33
Spain: +0.26
Portugal: +0.26
Netherlands: -0.25
Finland: -0.17
UK: -0.09
NEET rates (not in employment, education, or training):
Italy: 21.4% → 12.0% (2015-2024)
Greece: 17.2% → 9.6%
Spain: 15.6% → 10.1%
Netherlands: 4.7% → 3.6%
Economic context:
-34%: Greece's GDP contraction (2008-2015)
+20%: Portugal's GDP growth (2016-2024)
+12%: Greece's recovery growth post-2015
+8%: Germany's growth (same period)
The Regional Split
Northern Europe now shows continuous life satisfaction improvement with age. This group includes Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and the UK. Young people in these countries report the lowest satisfaction levels. Sweden showed this pattern earliest, with positive age effects every year since 2010.
Southern Europe shows the opposite: Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain, and Portugal see life satisfaction decline with age. Their young people are the happiest demographic. Italy's youth satisfaction jumped from 2.83 to 3.16 (2021-2024) on a four-point scale.
Austria and France defy easy categorization. Austria shows downward slopes in face-to-face surveys but no significant pattern online. France displays negative slopes except in web-based Global Minds surveys.
The UK data is particularly clear. Across Eurobarometer, European Social Survey, and Gallup World Poll, British life satisfaction rises with age. The effect strengthens in anonymous online surveys, suggesting young Britons underreport unhappiness in face-to-face interviews.
The Social Media Paradox
The findings challenge conventional wisdom about social media's role in youth mental health. Southern European youth — equally exposed to Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter — show improving wellbeing while northern peers deteriorate. This suggests social media's impact may depend on economic context rather than exposure alone.
School-age data reinforces this interpretation. PISA and HBSC surveys show universal satisfaction declines among 15-16 year-olds across all countries:
Austria: 7.52 → 6.69 (2015-2022)
UK: 6.98 → 6.07
Spain: 7.42 → 6.88
Greece: 6.91 → 6.62
Yet after graduation, trajectories diverge sharply. Where youth job markets improved, satisfaction rebounded. Where they stagnated, misery deepened. The divergence point is labor market entry, not social media adoption.
Timing and Causation
The U-shape held steady for nearly 50 years through oil crises, recessions, and the 2008 financial crash. It disappeared abruptly in 2020, but changes began earlier:
Sweden: positive age slopes since 2010
Southern Europe: youth satisfaction rising since 2015
UK: hints of change by 2018
The 2015 timing aligns precisely with peak youth unemployment in southern Europe. When researchers control for youth unemployment ratios, they find direct relationships with life satisfaction in southern Europe but not northern countries. In regression analyses, lower unemployment ratios (current rate/2015 peak) predict higher youth satisfaction in the south.
Beyond Employment
The UK illustrates why this isn't just about jobs. British youth unemployment peaked at 21.3% versus 50%+ in Greece and Spain. Yet UK youth satisfaction declined while southern European youth thrived. Similarly, Sweden's youth unemployment actually increased while maintaining positive age slopes in satisfaction.
The researchers note a "mortality selection bias" after age 70 — happier people live longer, skewing cross-sectional data. They restricted analysis to under-70s to avoid this bias. The true age patterns may be even starker than observed.
Survey Methods Matter
How you ask changes what you find. Face-to-face interviews (CAPI) show modest age effects due to social desirability bias. Anonymous online surveys (CAWI) reveal stronger patterns. Web-based surveys show the most extreme gradients.
UK data exemplifies this: the age coefficient is seven times larger online (+0.0072) than in-person (+0.0010). This held across all statistical approaches — age bands, continuous variables, polynomial specifications. Seven independent surveys using different methodologies confirmed the regional split.
What Changed
For decades, researchers considered the U-shape universal. Hedonic adaptation theory suggested midlife dissatisfaction was inevitable. Socioemotional selectivity theory predicted elderly happiness. These theories assumed universal human patterns that transcended culture and economics.
Now northern European countries face youth mental health crises their prosperity hasn't prevented. Their generous welfare states and low unemployment haven't protected young people from unprecedented unhappiness. Meanwhile, southern neighbors emerging from devastating recessions demonstrate that economic opportunity remains fundamental to youth wellbeing.
The policy implications are stark. One-size-fits-all European youth policies ignore fundamental regional differences. Northern countries need interventions in addition to employment programs. Southern countries must maintain momentum (or even increase) in youth job creation. Mental health assessments that rely on face-to-face interviews may systematically miss youth distress.
Bottomline
Blanchflower and Bryson document the end of psychology's most reliable age pattern. After 50 years of stability, Europe split into two emotional zones. Northern youth are increasingly miserable while their grandparents thrive. Southern youth flourish as their elders struggle. The primary driver appears to be youth job opportunities, not social media exposure. The UK exemplifies the northern crisis: decent employment figures but declining youth satisfaction. For researchers who built careers on universal human patterns, this regional divergence signals that in 21st century Europe, your postal code determines whether aging brings contentment or despair.