Miyazaki Might Be Right: Cases of A Town, A City, A Province, & A Country That Boosted Birth Rates
"Rather than looking at how to stimulate domestic demand by building bridges or roads, we should provide a proper environment for our future generations because children are Japan's best investment" - Hayao Miyazaki
Key points:
Hayao Miyazaki argued in 2008 that investing in children and families should take precedence over stimulating domestic demand.
Several places, including the Japanese cities of Nagareyama and Nagi, the Italian province of South Tyrol, and the Czech Republic, have successfully reversed declining fertility rates through comprehensive, family-friendly policies.
These policies include practical support, such as childcare transportation systems, financial incentives, such as child allowances and subsidies, and initiatives that promote work-life balance for parents.
Stable economic conditions, access to adequate housing, and a cultural shift towards valuing families have also played a crucial role in these success stories.
While each case is unique, they demonstrate the importance of consistent, long-term commitment to supporting families and adapting policies to local needs.
These examples offer hope and valuable lessons for other countries grappling with demographic challenges. They show that declining fertility rates can be reversed with the right approach.
In a 2008 interview, “My Neighbor Totoro” animator Hayao Miyazaki expressed his concern for children's future, discussing his pessimism about their prospects and his worry about the impact of consumerism. His belief that creating a better environment for children should take precedence over driving up domestic demand may have seemed idealistic at the time. Still, recent demographic trends suggest that Miyazaki's words were more on the mark than anyone could have imagined.
Fast forward to 16 years later, and we are seeing a common pattern as several cities, provinces, and even an entire country have successfully reversed declining fertility rates by consistently improving and working on family policy. From small towns like Nagi and cities like Nagareyama in Japan to the Italian province of South Tyrol, and the Czech Republic as a whole, these success stories demonstrate that consistent efforts to improve the lives of families can yield remarkable results.
Successes of A Town And A City in Japan
Nagareyama, a small city near Tokyo, and Nagi, a rural town in Japan's heart, have implemented innovative approaches to boost fertility rates and support families.
The Town of Nagi
Four hundred miles west of Nagareyama lies Nagi, a small town in the mountains once known for its rice paddies, black soybeans, and taro roots. Today, it's famous for something else entirely: its astonishing fertility rate of 2.95 (as of 2019), more than double the national average.
Nagi's transformation began in 2002 when residents chose to remain independent rather than merge with neighboring cities. That decision forced the town to confront its own dwindling population head-on. People went through a significant mental shift when they chose not to merge, realizing they had to dedicate more resources to nurturing their own population.
The town began offering free medical services for children until junior high school and paying parents 100,000 yen (roughly $1,000) for every child born after their second. Over the years, those policies have expanded to include free medical care for children through high school, starting the 100,000 yen incentive for the first child, and subsidies for childcare, education, and even infertility treatments.
But financial support is just one piece of Nagi's puzzle. The town has also cultivated a culture that celebrates and supports families. At the Nagi Child Home, parents gather to swap stories, seek advice, and find affordable childcare at around $2 per hour.
Nearly half of Nagi's households now have three or more children, a rarity in Japan. The widespread belief that having and raising children is a duty to society translates into accepting parents temporarily leaving work to care for young children and an appreciation for the work parents do in raising the next generation. This is a very unusual or even heretical thought for many business and political leaders.
Nagi's success has drawn attention from the highest levels of government, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visiting the town in February 2023 to learn from its example. The town's story offers valuable lessons for a nation needing a fertility boost, showing that by investing in families, creating a supportive environment for parents, and celebrating the joys of child-rearing, demographic decline is not a certainty.
The City of Nagareyama
Nagareyama's journey began in 2003 when Mayor Yoshiharu Izaki, a grandfather who bikes to work, took office to make the town more attractive to working families. His flagship initiative is a unique childcare transportation system that has since garnered national attention.
Each weekday morning, over a hundred children are dropped off by their parents at Nagareyama's main train stations, Nagareyama-otakanomori and Minami-Nagareyama. From there, a fleet of buses whisks them away to their respective daycares before reuniting them with their parents in the evening. This ingenious setup has made juggling work and family a breeze for Nagareyama's residents, allowing them to easily commute to Tokyo in 30 minutes via the Tsukuba Express line.
What sets Nagareyama apart is its environment, which enables parents to raise children quickly while maintaining their careers. When the program started, other cities were hesitant to follow suit. However, Nagareyama made a significant difference by providing transportation to all nursery schools in the city. The impact has been profound – the number of children on daycare waiting lists has dwindled to zero, a remarkable feat considering Nagareyama's birth rate has soared by 40% over the past 15 years.
In 2022, Nagareyama achieved a total fertility rate of 1.50, towering above the national average of 1.26. The town has also consistently topped population growth charts, even as the rest of Japan grapples with a shrinking populace.
But Nagareyama's triumphs extend beyond numbers. The town boasts a thriving community of dual-income households, with fathers often seen dropping their children off at the station in the morning and mothers picking them up in the evening. The town has put a lot of effort into making it easy to raise children, but living in Nagareyama is about more than that - it's about the overall environment.
The station drop-off program is just one piece of a giant puzzle, which includes flexible childcare options such as local teachers turning their homes into small nurseries. The city is an example of New Urbanist ideals in practice, as the national government enforces permissive zoning, so the local government focuses on their planning efforts from plentiful green spaces to connect the town to central Tokyo better further.
In this case, I can’t emphasize the importance of consistency, as parents respond to clear and constant government support signals. Izaki’s vision for Nagareyama extends beyond just boosting birth rates; his vision is a vibrant, autonomous community where people can live, work, and thrive. With more welfare facilities, hospitals, and even Japan's most significant logistics project setting up shop in the town, that vision is quickly becoming a reality.
The question is, "Can we scale this?"
Nagareyama and Nagi's success proves that local governments can make a real difference when prioritizing families' needs. The two towns have taken different approaches—Nagareyama focuses on work-life balance and transportation, Nagi on financial incentives and community support—but both have achieved remarkable results.
The national government is taking notice, with the newly formed Children and Families Agency pledging to support towns like Nagareyama and Nagi. The agency's policy coordinator, Shigehito Nakahara, says the first thing they did was formulate a plan to mitigate costs for families while increasing allowances for parents. Over the next three years, an additional $24.5 billion has been allocated to this strategy.
The Province of South Tyrol
Italy, like many European nations, is facing a demographic crisis. In March 2023, ISTAT, the Italian National Institute of Statistics, reported that the country's total fertility rate (TFR) had declined to 1.2, well below the replacement level of 2.1. The Italian population fell by 384,000 in 2020 alone. However, one region in the country consistently defies this trend: the autonomous province of South Tyrol.
South Tyrol: An Oasis of Fertility
South Tyrol, officially known as Bolzano-South Tyrol, is a prosperous province in northeastern Italy where over 60% of the population speaks German as their first language. With a history tied to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the province is known for its stunning mountain landscapes, unique Italian and Austrian cultural blend, and impressive fertility rates.
In 2022, South Tyrol's TFR reached 1.64, significantly higher than the national average of 1.2. The province also outperforms fertility rates in neighboring Austria, Switzerland, and Germany regions, standing out as a beacon of hope amidst a sea of declining birth rates.
This success is not a recent phenomenon. South Tyrol has consistently outpaced the national TFR since the 1990s. It has pulled ahead since then and has maintained its since. Remarkably, despite the overall decline in fertility across Italy, South Tyrol's TFR is now higher than in the mid-1990s.
The Secret to South Tyrol's Success
So, what sets South Tyrol apart? As some Italian politicians suggest (despite their own failure to boost Italy’s fertility rate, is it a bastion of “traditional family values™”? The answer is more nuanced and something you will probably guess this far into the article. Like much of northern Italy, South Tyrol has high female labor market participation and one of the most minor gender employment gaps in the country. It also exhibits lower religiosity than other Italian regions despite Italy being one of Europe's most religious countries overall.
Instead, South Tyrol's success can be attributed to a forward-thinking and long-term commitment, shown in its policy (some would say doing the opposite of some political leaders’ approach), which has been in place since the 1980s. As an autonomous province, South Tyrol has more freedom to implement family-friendly policies than other parts of Italy.
One key initiative is the financial support provided to families. Parents receive 200 euros per month for each child until they turn three, in addition to a monthly payment of 1,900 euros from the Italian government. Newborns are also welcomed with a "Ben Arrivato Bebé" (Welcome Baby) package, which includes baby clothes, books, vouchers, and a family pass for discounted public transportation.
Families with three or more children benefit from the Family+ card, offering discounts at shops and supermarkets. The province also provides flexible, semi-informal childcare through the "Casa Bimbo" system, allowing local teachers to convert their homes into small nurseries.
These policies are not merely financial incentives but a long-term commitment to supporting families. The consistent, reliable nature of these initiatives has been crucial in earning the trust and confidence of parents.
Lessons for Italy and Beyond
South Tyrol is another case that stresses the importance of consistency and stability in family policies. Parents are not asking for extravagant solutions; they respond positively to practical (and material) improvements in their daily lives and understand it's a long-term and (more importantly) consistent thing from the government.
As Italy grapples with its demographic challenges, South Tyrol's example provides a roadmap for reversing the declining fertility trend. By prioritizing the needs of families, offering financial support, and creating a stable, supportive environment for parents, the province has become a beacon of hope in a nation struggling to maintain its population.
The Country, The Czech Republic
In the heart of Europe, the Czech Republic stands as a beacon of hope amidst a continent grappling with declining birth rates. While many countries struggle to maintain their population levels, the Czechs have implemented a comprehensive, long-term approach to supporting families, resulting in a remarkable turnaround in their fertility rates.
A Consistent Commitment to Families
The Czech Republic's success story begins in the 1970s, when the government, then part of Czechoslovakia, began investing heavily in family-friendly policies. This commitment to supporting parents and children has remained steadfast, even as the country underwent significant political and social changes.
One key pillar of the Czech approach is flexibility with childcare. Like any other, Czech provides a robust network of nurseries and kindergartens, but unlike other governments, Czech also values mini nurseries and grandparental support. The government recognized early on that access to quality childcare is essential for enabling parents, particularly mothers, to balance their work and family responsibilities.
Financial Support and Parental Leave
In addition to childcare infrastructure, the Czech Republic offers generous financial support to families. In 2001, the government introduced a parental allowance of 300,000 Czech crowns (approximately 12,000 euros) for each child. This allowance is even higher for families with multiple children, providing a significant financial cushion for parents.
Moreover, the Czech Republic boasts the most extended parental leave in Europe, which can be taken by either parent or both simultaneously for a certain period. This policy recognizes the importance of both mothers and fathers in child-rearing. It allows families the flexibility to make the best choices for their unique circumstances.
A Stable Economic Environment
Beyond specific family policies, the Czech Republic has benefited from a stable and prosperous economic environment. Unlike some neighbors, the country has maintained low unemployment rates, providing families with a sense of security and predictability. This financial stability is crucial when deciding to have children, as parents need to feel confident in their ability to provide for their families.
Housing also plays a significant role in the success story of the Czech Republic. Only 15% of Czechs live in overcrowded homes, compared to much higher rates in other European countries like Poland (37%) and Italy (31%). This access to adequate housing further contributes to a sense of stability and security for families.
Economics & Culture
Perhaps most importantly, the Czech Republic’s policies and economic commitments fostered a cultural environment that values and supports families. Nearly half of all Czechs now believe that having and raising children is a duty to society, compared to just 20% who disagree. This widespread recognition of the importance of family has translated into greater acceptance and appreciation for the work parents do in raising the next generation.
Comprehensive policies, economic stability, and a supportive cultural environment have yielded impressive results. The Czech Republic's fertility rate has risen steadily over the past two decades, from just 1.13 children per woman in 1999 to 1.71 in 2022. This remarkable turnaround starkly contrasts the fertility declines in many other European countries.
Lessons for Other Countries
The Czech experience highlights the importance of fostering a culture that values and supports families. While essential, policies alone are insufficient to reverse declining fertility rates. A commitment to parents and the next generation gives the policies their edge.
Again, we see another case of how consistent, comprehensive policies and a genuine commitment to the well-being of families, even the most daunting population declines, can be reversed.
Bottomline
In 2008, Hayao Miyazaki was onto something when he said investing in kids and families should be the priority over boosting domestic demand. Now, places like Nagareyama and Nagi in Japan, South Tyrol in Italy, and the Czech Republic are proving him right by successfully reversing fertility declines through comprehensive, long-term family-friendly policies tailored to local needs.
These success stories demonstrate that even the most challenging demographic trends can be reversed with practical support, financial incentives, and stable economic conditions. These economic conditions boost the birth rate and inspire local cultures to value kids and families more. While each case is unique, they all share a commitment to consistently improving the lives of parents and children over the long haul.
The big picture looks like addressing falling birth rates isn't a lost cause. It requires thinking beyond short-term economic fixes or tone-deaf propaganda to change the culture. By creating an environment where families can truly thrive, families do thrive.
 | A guest post by
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In other words: Pronatalism doesn't really move the needle. But HUMANISM does.
Enjoyed this article, especially as a parent of three. One thing that I think would strengthen the argument would be comparing some of these fertility gains to other European countries with similarly generous family support policies but stagnant fertility rates. My impression is that most of Europe has very generous parental leave etc. but still suffers from low fertility rates.